本文選題：房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng) + 市場(chǎng)供需　； 參考：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：1998年以來(lái)，隨著我國(guó)住房體制的改革，并伴隨我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)，房?jī)r(jià)一路飆升，高漲的房?jī)r(jià)超出居民購(gòu)買力，住房成為民眾關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，也引起了政府的重視。在市場(chǎng)作用下，商品價(jià)格的高低一般受供求關(guān)系決定，房?jī)r(jià)的高漲與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供求有著密不可分的關(guān)系，影響市場(chǎng)供求的因素進(jìn)而會(huì)影響到房?jī)r(jià)。研究住宅價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響因素對(duì)于穩(wěn)定房?jī)r(jià)，促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康地發(fā)展具有重要意義。 房?jī)r(jià)是由房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供需雙方?jīng)Q定的，房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)是由房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供需失衡所致，所以本文運(yùn)用供需理論來(lái)分析住宅價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響機(jī)理。首先，本文用詳細(xì)的數(shù)據(jù)說(shuō)明我國(guó)住宅市場(chǎng)供求及住宅價(jià)格波動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀；其次，定性地分析住宅價(jià)格波動(dòng)的基礎(chǔ)理論、影響因素和結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型；再次，本文借助結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型實(shí)證了住宅價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響機(jī)理，即住宅市場(chǎng)供需作為潛變量，分別借鑒前人研究成果和住宅市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀歸納出14個(gè)可測(cè)變量，選取了近15年住宅市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本，通過(guò)模型的構(gòu)建、識(shí)別、擬合、修正及驗(yàn)證，最終確定了含有2個(gè)潛變量，10個(gè)顯變量，顯著性較好的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型，發(fā)揮出結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型優(yōu)化、簡(jiǎn)化結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，并使其研究更為簡(jiǎn)潔與客觀。 最后利用二階因子模型進(jìn)行研究，對(duì)1998-2012年我國(guó)住宅市場(chǎng)房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，我們能客觀地分析出住宅價(jià)格波動(dòng)、住宅市場(chǎng)供需與10個(gè)可測(cè)變量間的關(guān)系，得出影響市場(chǎng)供需的主次因素，并把握住宅市場(chǎng)房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)的影響機(jī)理，，我們就能“釜底抽薪”制定出有效抑制房?jī)r(jià)快速增長(zhǎng)并促使房?jī)r(jià)合理回歸的的方針政策。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, with the reform of housing system in our country and the rapid growth of our economy, the house price has soared all the time, and the housing price has exceeded the purchasing power of the residents. Housing has become the focus of the people's attention, and it has also aroused the attention of the government.Under the influence of the market, the price of commodity is generally determined by the relationship between supply and demand. The rising of house price is closely related to the supply and demand of real estate market, and the factors that affect the supply and demand of the market will affect the house price.It is of great significance to study the influencing factors of housing price fluctuation for stabilizing house price and promoting the healthy development of real estate market.The house price is decided by the supply and demand of the real estate market, and the fluctuation of the house price is caused by the imbalance of the supply and demand of the real estate market. Therefore, this paper uses the theory of supply and demand to analyze the influence mechanism of the housing price fluctuation.First, this paper uses detailed data to explain the current situation of housing supply and demand and housing price fluctuation in China; secondly, qualitatively analyzes the basic theory, influencing factors and structural equation model of housing price volatility; thirdly,In this paper, the influence mechanism of housing price fluctuation is demonstrated by using structural equation model, that is, the supply and demand of housing market as latent variables, and 14 measurable variables are concluded by reference to the previous research results and the present situation of housing market, respectively.Taking the data of the housing market for the past 15 years as the sample, through the construction, identification, fitting, correction and verification of the model, the structural equation model with 2 latent variables, 10 explicit variables and good significance is finally determined.The advantages of structural equation model optimization are brought into play to simplify the structure and make the research more concise and objective.Finally, the second order factor model is used to evaluate the fluctuation of housing price in China from 1998 to 2012. We can objectively analyze the relationship between housing price fluctuation, the relationship between supply and demand of housing market and 10 measurable variables.The main and secondary factors that influence the supply and demand of the market and the influence mechanism of the house price fluctuation in the housing market are obtained, and we can draw up the principle and policy of effectively restraining the rapid increase of the house price and promoting the reasonable return of the house price.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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